Policy forum lays out ‘prolonged disruption’ scenario in which world’s GDP falls to 2. 1% this year from 3. 4% in 2025 Rural UK ‘particularly at risk’ of diesel shortages If the Middle East conflict drags on into next year it would hit global growth hard, driving some economies into recession and causing energy shortages, according to forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Authoritarian states are increasingly shutting off or throttling access to the internet, creating separate spheres in a realm built on connection China boasts of having the world’s largest population of internet users: 1. 125 billion by the end of 2025, according to official figures . But as one joke has it, the Great Firewall – blocking not only politically sensitive material but also global tech firms such as Google and Meta – has produced what looks more like the world’s largest intranet.
Surging demand, low reserves and reduced Middle East exports predicted to cause global crunch by August Oil markets will enter “red zone” by July and August as stocks dwindle before the summer travel season amid a shortage of fresh oil exports from the Middle East, the executive director of the International Energy Authority warned on Thursday. Fatih Birol added that the most important solution to the Iran war energy shock was a full and unconditional reopening of the strait of Hormuz. Continue reading...
Narendra Modi’s austerity appeals reveal how war, energy insecurity and dollar pressures expose the fragility of globalisation The Indian prime minister’s call for sacrifice last week marks a fundamental shift. He urged the country’s 1. 4 billion people to consume less fuel and fertiliser, buy less gold and curb foreign travel as global energy prices surge because of the war in Iran.
Plan floated in Iranian media to extract revenues from US tech firms would rely on intimidation and is legally dubious Could undersea cables – the sinews of the global internet – become the next frontier in the US-Israel war against Iran ? Last week, two Iranian state-linked media channels, Tasnim and Fars, suggested Iran could leverage its power over the strait of Hormuz, the 25-mile (40km) stretch between Iran and Oman, by charging US tech companies to use the internet cables that traverse the strait. Tasnim implied this could be a lucrative proposition, netting Iran hundreds of millions of dollars each year.
Powerful property and farming firm Grosvenor Group says knock-on effect of Iran war could arrive next year Fertiliser shortages caused by the Iran war have driven up costs for UK farmers by up to 70% and will have a “dramatic” impact on food prices globally next year, according to one of Britain’s most powerful property and farming companies. Mark Preston, executive trustee of the 349-year-old Grosvenor Group , controlled by the Duke of Westminster , said fertiliser “was already quite expensive” before the 50% to 70% surge in prices since the start of the Iran war in late February. Continue reading...
Plans to be included in king’s speech will allow tougher action against proxies for foreign powers such as Iran UK politics live – latest updates Offenders who commit antisemitic attacks backed by foreign powers such as Iran will face 14 years in prison under legislation to be included in the king’s speech next week. Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, will be given the power under the National Security Act to designate proxy groups, such as those thought to be behind the recent attacks on the Jewish community, as a foreign intelligence service. Continue reading...
US president announces short pause to ‘Project Freedom’ operation escorting ships through strait of Hormuz Business live – latest updates Oil prices have eased and stock markets rose as Donald Trump touted “great progress” towards a “final agreement” with Iran. The US president said he would briefly pause his “Project Freedom” operation escorting ships through the strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies but has been blockaded by Iran since late February, triggering a global energy crisis. Continue reading...
US president says he is pausing US effort to guide stranded vessels out of the strait of Hormuz but blockade remains Donald Trump has announced that he is pausing ‘Project Freedom’, the US effort to guide stranded vessels out of the strait of Hormuz, so that he can finalise a deal with Iran, but added that his blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place. Trump announced the decision in a social media post, saying he was pausing the effort for a short period to give space for US efforts to finalise a settlement with Iran to end the war. Continue reading...
War has combined with battered economy to leave Tehran wondering how hardline it can afford to be Iran may not be choking like a stuffed pig as Donald Trump predicted, but its economy is in serious difficulty as a combination of a massive war-damages bill, inflation, currency devaluation, unemployment and a contraction in oil revenues combine to leave the political elite worrying how hardline they can afford to be with their US negotiators. One estimate circulating in Iran’s media suggests the damage to the economy from the US-Israeli attacks is nine times the value of the Iranian budget last year. The UN Development Programme has estimated that 4.
Analysts say Americans have now paid $21. 7bn more to fill their tanks since the start of the US war on Iran Exxon and Chevron quarterly earnings fall despite soaring oil prices Sign up for the Breaking News US newsletter email The average price for a gallon of gas in California rose to $6 this week as fuel prices across the US reached their highest level in almost four years. The American Automobile Association reported on Friday that California consumers were paying an average of $6.
Oil markets spooked as Donald Trump appears willing to maintain the US Navy blockade and Iran’s keeps strait of Hormuz all but shut The price of Brent oil soared above $122 a barrel on Wednesday, its highest level since 2022, as US-Iran ceasefire negotiations stalled and the critical strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed. In a one-day surge of almost 10%, the price of Brent crude hit the highest level since the war began, tipping past $122 before settling about $120. Not since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has Brent topped $120.
The world must accelerate the shift to renewables, regardless of the economic effects of Abu Dhabi’s decision Opec appears to be the latest casualty of the Iran war. On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates announced that it was leaving the oil cartel after 60 years. The loss of a critical member is a blow to the group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, in the midst of the biggest supply crisis in history.
Billionaire Alexei Mordashov’s vessel, Nord, reportedly able to cross blockaded strait with US and Iranian approval A superyacht owned by the Russian billionaire Alexei Mordashov was able to transit the blockaded strait of Hormuz after undergoing maintenance in Dubai because neither Iran nor the US objected, a source close to Mordashov said on Tuesday. It has been unclear how the multi-deck pleasure vessel, worth more than $500m (£370m), gained permission to sail on Saturday through the commercially important waterway at the heart of the US-Iran conflict, where traffic has been severely restricted since February. Continue reading...
We’d like to hear how you’re adapting your expenditure as the cost of living rises amid the conflict in the Middle East Rising prices and economic uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East are putting pressure on household budgets across the UK. The Bank of England has warned that more than a million additional households could face higher mortgage payments in the coming years, as borrowing costs rise and lenders pull or reprice deals. Surveys suggest millions of households are already making changes to cope – cutting back, dipping into savings or taking on debt.
Darren Jones suggests cost of energy, food and flights will remain high after de-escalation and Hormuz strait reopens The UK faces higher prices for food and fuel for at least eight months after the war in Iran ends, a minister has said. The closure of the strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that carried a fifth of global oil and gas, has sent oil prices soaring since the US and Israeli attacks on Iran began in February. Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the prime minister, said the conflict would probably continue to raise prices for energy, food and flights in the coming months as potential issues around energy supplies affect production, rather than lead to shortages on supermarket shelves.
Iran’s plan to extract a $2m payment from tankers using the strait of Hormuz could raise costs for years to come A second round of peace talks between the US and Iran has begun amid renewed attacks on oil tankers in the strait of Hormuz and a US blockade on Iranian vessels through the crucial trade route. The future of this narrow waterway – and curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme – are at the centre of the talks after Tehran’s de facto blockade on oil and gas tankers via the strait pushed up energy prices. Continue reading...
Karex produces more than 5 billion condoms annually and is a supplier to leading brands like Durex and Trojan, as well as the NHS The world’s top condom producer, Malaysia’s Karex Bhd, plans to raise prices by 20% to 30% and possibly further if supply chain disruptions drag on due to the Iran war, its chief executive has said. Karex is also seeing a surge in condom demand as rising freight costs and shipping delays have left many of its customers with lower stockpiles than usual, CEO Goh Miah Kiat told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday. Continue reading...
Federal prosecutor says woman is suspected of dealing weapons to Africa on behalf of Iranian government A California woman was arrested at Los Angeles international airport after allegedly trafficking weapons on behalf of the Iranian government to contacts in Africa, including Sudan. Shamim Mafi, 44, of Woodland Hills was detained on Saturday night by federal agents, according to the top federal prosecutor in Los Angeles. Continue reading...
Dissent cannot take hold in soil rendered barren by emigration and embargo. Political opposition needs academic and cultural exchange if it is to prosper The chancellor of the exchequer and the IMF agree . Britain’s economy is about to take its greatest hit for decades.
